The situation in the Middle East will reduce discounts on Russian oil, but only in the short term

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Energy Policy magazine on the prospects for reducing discounts on Russian oil amid the conflict in the Middle East.

"In the short term, we see the following: if world oil prices rise, then Russian quotations will also rise. Moreover, Russian quotations will grow faster than world oil prices, simply because we were falling lower due to the sanctions discounts," Alexey Gromov believes.

According to him, in September 2025, discounts on Russian oil amounted to about $ 10-12 per barrel, and in January, with the tightening of anti-Russian sanctions and US pressure on major buyers, they reached $ 29 per barrel, and in some cases $ 33-35 per barrel.

"It is obvious that in the current situation, the price discount on Russian oil, which is not related to the Middle East, will decrease, because China will take our oil with great pleasure against the background of political risks and the lack of supplies from the Middle East, at least temporarily. India will also return to these supplies, which, under pressure from the United States, reduced purchases of Russian oil in December and January and would have continued to reduce them if not for the events of recent days in Iran," Gromov said.

"But I want to emphasize that this is a relatively short-term story. No further fundamental steps related to easing sanctions pressure on Russia and expanding the circle of Russian oil buyers are yet expected," the expert stressed.

"Therefore, I would not say now that Russia has serious long—term strategic advantages from the situation in the Middle East," he added.