Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Expert magazine on the causes and consequences of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+.
With the departure of the UAE, OPEC is losing 12% of pre-crisis production (from the level of February 2026) and about 15% of capacity, Alexei Belogoryev estimated. The analyst noted that the UAE's exit is becoming a strong reputational loss for OPEC, because the country is a "first league player" in the organization.
At the same time, neither OPEC nor OPEC+, according to Alexey Belogoryev, will fall apart. He stressed that OPEC+ is based on an unspoken agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and the collapse of OPEC+ is not beneficial for these countries now.
The final reason for the break with OPEC and OPEC+ could be the unwillingness to agree for the UAE to increase the target production level to 5 million bpd from 2027, the analyst admitted."In part, the main negotiators within OPEC+ can now even breathe a sigh of relief, since the UAE was perhaps the most obstinate bidder around quotas. Reaching a consensus may now become even easier," he added.
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