Russian oil on a roller coaster of tariffs

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the current situation with oil exports from Russia to the Energy Policy magazine.

According to him, what is happening in the United States is "convulsive tossing and turning with a not very clear practical result." In this situation, India, according to him, chooses the optimal strategy — waiting.

"No high-profile political statements will be made now. And in fact, I think it (India) will put on pause the process of reducing purchases of Russian oil, which India began at the end of November last year," Gromov notes.

Indian imports of Russian oil peaked in November, reaching 1.8 million barrels per day. By January, this figure had dropped to 1.1 million. Previously, it was assumed that if trade negotiations with the United States were successful, India could continue to reduce purchases down to 500-600 thousand barrels. However, these plans are now frozen.

"The market price is not at all what China is counting on,— states Alexey Gromov. "In fact, in January, China replaced these lost volumes of Venezuelan oil with supplies of cheap Urals grade oil from Russia, which is similar in its physico—chemical properties to Venezuelan oil, but is much cheaper today."

"The member countries of the BRICS alliance rather take a wait-and—see attitude towards this situation and do not seek to force events in terms of a complete transition to an alternative trading system," Alexey Gromov summarizes. "I hope that the countries will come to this, but the process will develop more slowly than we would like."