Russia may suspend the pumping of oil from Kazakhstan. Will there be an oil shortage in Europe, and why did this happen after Tokayev’s negotiations with the EU

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the RTVI TV channel about Russia's possible suspension of oil pumping from Kazakhstan.

In the past few days, a conflict has been developing in the oil market, which could intensify the energy crisis in the EU. Kazakhstan, which is one of the five largest oil suppliers to Europe, has recently assured the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, that it is ready to help them with energy supplies. The next day, Russia threatened to temporarily stop the export of Kazakh oil through the port in Novorossiysk, citing problems with the documentation at the enterprise. Whether the situation will provoke a shortage of oil in the EU, whether Kazakhstan will be able to find an alternative route for exports, and how all this will affect its relations with Russia - in the RTVI material.

Southern Europe and the Mediterranean will experience the greatest deficit, Marcel Salikhov says.

“About 1.3 million barrels for every day of downtime is very large volumes, about 1% of all world consumption,” he says.

At the same time, the suspension of oil pumping from Kazakhstan will cause an increase in demand for Russian oil, Salikhov notes. The countries of Southern Europe continue to actively import Russian oil, so the shortage of oil from Kazakhstan may cause a temporary increase in offshore supplies of Russian Urals.

Oil prices have not yet reacted to these developments, as supplies through the CPC are still ongoing. The consortium appealed against the decision of the court, the parties can still agree. In the event of a suspension of pumping, oil prices will rise, Salikhov notes. In the meantime, they are more influenced by the risks of a global recession and other macroeconomic factors that are not directly related to the oil market.