Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Oil and Capital magazine on the future competition of exporters for the Chinese LNG market.
As Alexey Belogoryev noted, it is very difficult to say exactly what consumption in China will actually be even in 2030.
"There are different estimates, but by 2030 I would put the average value at 550 billion cubic meters per year. However, even this growth does not mean that Russia will not have to jostle with competitors in this market. Starting in 2026, competition among LNG suppliers will increase significantly not only in the Chinese market, as many liquefied natural gas export projects will be launched in a number of countries. In addition to this, domestic production in China itself is also growing," the expert says.
According to Alexey Belogoryev, China itself does not know how much gas it will need in 10-15 years. Now it has everything contracted out, and there are no problems with meeting the demand. There is potential in the future both by increasing pipeline gas supplies from Turkmenistan and by the Far Eastern route project from Russia. But it is still unclear how much China's total imports will be.
"At the same time, LNG will be the switching lever. Liquefied natural gas will account for most of the increase (or decrease in demand) for gas in China. In this regard, Russia will need to resolve the issue of gas carriers and the cost of gas supplies from the Arctic to the east," the analyst concluded.
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