Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the possibilities of replacing Ukrainian gas transit for Russia and the EU countries to the Neft and Capital Internet portal.
Alexey Gromov recalled that by the end of 2023, the Balkan Stream, a continuation of the Turkish Stream in Eastern Europe, was underloaded. If it is filled completely, then Russia can compensate for about 5 billion cubic meters of the 14 billion cubic meters per year lost on exports due to the potential shutdown of the Ukrainian GTS.
At the same time, the expert believes that Austria, which has a long-term contract with Gazprom until 2040, can also find an alternative to the gas that is now supplied to it through the Ukrainian GTS. However, this strongly depends, firstly, on the terms of the contract with the Russian holding company regarding pricing, and secondly, on the political decisions of Austria itself."We can add to this a potential Turkish gas hub, which has not yet been created, but negotiations on it can be accelerated if the Ukrainian GTS stops pumping Russian gas. Due to this hub, swap operations could be carried out when the Russian Federation begins to sell Turkey the volume necessary for its domestic market, and Ankara sends free gas to Europe. Due to such operations, the Russian Federation could de facto send an additional couple of billion cubic meters per year to the EU.
Of the 14 billion cubic meters that Gazprom sent to Ukraine, it will be able to compensate for about two thirds at the expense of the Turkish direction, but not more. Otherwise, it is necessary to launch the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. It seems unlikely that the EU will change its mind, even on the periphery. Hungary has already stated that the work of the Turkish Stream is enough for it. Slovakia could just use the Ukrainian UGS," the analyst explained.
"In recent months, we have really seen how Europe has increased purchases through the Ukrainian GTS. There is a feeling that the EU is doing this in a hurry, preparing for a shutdown from 2025. Statements about the benefits of Ukrainian UGS were made for a reason. European storage facilities are now more full than usual. It would be logical to leave gas at an attractive price in Ukrainian UGS, which, by the way, are currently only a quarter full, and then use this gas for Europe during the heating period," Alexey Gromov stressed.
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