Oil price forecast after the truce between the United States and Iran

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to TASS on the consequences of the announced truce between the United States and Iran for the world oil prices dynamics.

"In my opinion, prices will stay in the range of $80-90 in the next two or three weeks. This is due to the non-obvious, unclear terms of the truce itself, it does not seem to be mutually agreed upon, so the market will be very cautious about them. Secondly, the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz takes time due to the fact that insurance companies must fundamentally reduce the cost of insurance. I think it will take a week or two," he said.

"I think that if the geopolitical factor ceases to fundamentally influence, then by the autumn, that is, by the fourth quarter, prices will tend to reach $ 60 per barrel. There are more optimistic estimates, but, in my opinion, the general downward trend in prices has not been reversed, despite this unprecedented crisis. Prices will not decrease overnight, of course, but this price bubble will gradually deflate. I think it will take two to three months in total," he added.

Belogoryev does not rule out an alternative scenario in which the Iranian crisis will end in nothing, that is, no real peace agreement will be reached. Then the threat of renewed conflict will hang over the Gulf like a sword of Damocles at any moment. This, of course, will give a fairly significant geopolitical premium, which can keep oil prices above $70 until the end of the year, he noted.