Reasons for the gas prices rise in Europe

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to TASS on the reasons for the current rise in global oil and gas prices and their prospective dynamics in autumn and winter 2026.

“The current sharp rise in Europe is largely due to the increased rate of gas injection into underground storage facilities — European companies are doing their best to speed up this process in order to bring the average stock level in the EU up to at least 75%. At the previous pace, as in July–August, they would amount to only 70% of the active gas capacity by November 1. This increases the current demand from Europe and, given the acute shortage of LNG on the market, drives up prices,” Belogoryev said.

According to him, the gas market is currently experiencing an acute crisis due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and seasonally record‑low gas reserves in the EU’s underground gas storage facilities. Between March and August, the LNG market lost 15% of the expected supply, and the situation is not getting better.

At the same time, an increase in gas quotes in Europe to $1,500–2,000 in winter is unlikely, the expert believes.

“But prices could settle at the $1,000 level for a short time, provided that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the injection into EU underground storage facilities remains as intense. But overall, I would expect a return closer to $800 for now. It is difficult to predict price dynamics in winter — it will largely depend on weather conditions and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: both are factors of high uncertainty,” he concluded.