LNG supply on the global market may grow by 50% by 2030 %

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the prospects for the global LNG market and Russian LNG exports until 2030 in the face of emerging oversupply.

According to Belogoryev's forecast, global LNG demand in 2030 will amount to 580-630 million tons (800.4–869.4 billion cubic meters). Moreover, according to the expert, it is more likely to reach the lower limit of this range. At the same time, the LNG supply, according to his estimates, will amount to 650-670 million tons (897-924.6 billion cubic meters), i.e. it will exceed demand by 3-15.5%, the expert notes.

The European market, which accounts for a quarter of global demand, will remain important for exporters, Belogoryev notes.

According to his estimates, by 2030, spot prices in Europe and Asia will decrease by 43% relative to the average level of January – November 2025, from $440 to $250 per 1,000 cubic meters. Contract prices, according to the expert, will continue to depend on the dynamics of oil prices.

For Russia, the main challenge in the LNG market will not be a surplus of supply, but the embargo of the European Union, which remains the main market for Russia, Belogoryev believes. This will require Russian companies to find new buyers, increase the fleet of gas tankers, build appropriate supply chains and cargo insurance systems, he notes.