Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the causes and consequences of reaching new summer peaks in power consumption in the Center's ECO and the prospects for an increase in electricity consumption in Russia in 2026.
According to the UES, in the first decade of August, the average air temperature in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia reached 20.9 C compared with 19.4 C a year earlier. This is significantly higher than the long term average values, although lower than in 2023, notes Alexey Belogoryev. In the Central Unified Energy System, which includes the Oryol, Kaluga, and Smolensk regions, the temperature increase was even more significant — 21.3 °C compared to 19.4 °C a year earlier, the expert clarifies. According to his assessment, this led to an increase in the load on Russia’s power system during peak hours by approximately 1 GW.
The shift of annual energy consumption peaks to summer is a global trend caused by climate change and the increasing availability of air conditioning systems, the expert notes. In his opinion, this poses a significant challenge for Russia, since the Unified Energy System was designed for extreme winter loads in December–January. In the UES, summer peaks are already comparable to winter peaks, and in the Southern Unified Energy System exceed them, the expert clarifies.
He identifies the negative impact of heat on power generation as the main problem. The cooling efficiency of nuclear and thermal power plants is decreasing, overheating increases the risks of accidents on power transmission lines, and management of the energy system is becoming more complicated, since summer peaks are more difficult to predict than winter peaks, Belogoryev lists.
According to the data from the UES, electricity consumption in the UES of Russia in 2025 amounted to 1.16 trillion kWh, which is 1.1% less than a year earlier. A decrease in energy consumption in the country occurred for the first time since 2020, according to the company's data. According to Stapran’s forecast, electricity consumption in the country will grow by 1–1.5% this year, i.e., it will reach 1.17–1.18 trillion kWh.
Belogoryev expects a slightly larger growth — by 1.5–2%, to 1.18 trillion kWh. At the same time, the contribution of the Central Unified Energy System to the growth in energy consumption will be minimal, he believes. Siberia, the Far East, and the South will account for the largest increase, the expert clarifies.
According to him, the share of the weather factor in the increase in electricity consumption this year is unlikely to exceed one‑third. At the same time, this increase will mainly be due not to summer peaks in energy consumption, but to an abnormally cold start to the year, especially frosts in January and February, the expert clarifies.
The rest of the increase in electricity consumption will be due to structural demand, primarily driven by the military‑industrial complex, data centres, mining, and large infrastructure projects, he concludes.
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