Poland and Bulgaria provoke the global gas crisis

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vzglyad business newspaper on the consequences of cutting off Poland and Bulgaria from Russian gas supplies for Russia, the EU and the world market.

Europe, apparently, did not expect that Gazprom would decide to turn the valve on even after refusing to switch to a new payment system.

“But Gazprom had no choice but to limit gas supplies. Because it must comply with the directive of its main shareholder, the state,” Aleksey Gromov says.

Russia's losses depend on how many countries in Europe follow the example of Bulgaria and Poland.

“Obviously, the Baltic countries, which have repeatedly stated that they will not pay under the proposed scheme, are on the way. As well as the Netherlands, which also do not agree with the new payment scheme,” Gromov believes.

The Baltics consume a little over 3 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, and it will not be easy for it to find a replacement. Their hope is for the LNG terminal in Lithuania and Poland. But will Poland be ready to share the LNG coming to it with the Balts in the current conditions?

“For Russia, the determining factor will not be the position of these countries, but the position of the largest gas consumers in Europe. These are Germany, France and Italy. If they switch by default to the calculations proposed by Russia, then in the short term, Gazprom's financial losses from cutting off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, as well as to the Netherlands and the Baltic countries, will not be so significant. The losses will amount to about 12% of the total volume of gas supplies to Europe,” Gromov said. In 2021, Gazprom supplied 155 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. “A scarce gas market will lead to higher prices, so Gazprom's financial losses will be even smaller,” the source adds.