Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the EIA's revision of the forecast for the global oil market balance in 2025-2026.
According to Belogoryev, prices are already going down fundamentally under the influence of weakening demand growth in China, good production growth rates in South America and the desire of many OPEC+ countries to increase production."If it weren't for geopolitics, Brent crude would now be trading in the range of $60-70 per barrel," the expert said.
He believes that in the first quarter of 2025, the average excess of global demand over oil supply is unlikely to exceed 0.5 million barrels per day, and by the end of the year there may already be an oversupply of up to 1 million barrels per day, "which is a lot."
"The reason is simple - a combination of a sharp and quite natural slowdown in demand growth and an increasing supply. Due to the fact that prices continue to stay at a high level, supply does not have time to respond in time to bad signals from demand," the expert explained.
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