Why the ruble is weakening, and how long it will last

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Tinkoff Journal on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate.

Now, thanks to the OPEC+ decision to cut production, Urals and Brent oil prices are rising.

At the same time, in physical terms, oil exports are also growing. This should strengthen the ruble, but this will happen only on the horizon of 1-2 months, Marcel Salikhov says.

“The oil proceeds received at these prices will only reach Russia in a month or two,” he says. — Until 2022, this revenue lag was smoothed out by institutional investors who could buy the ruble, expecting it to strengthen due to high oil prices. Therefore, the peg of the ruble to oil prices was stronger.”