Why did the UAE withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, and what is the threat?

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the causes and consequences of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+.

According to Alexey Belogoryev, the UAE's decision is only indirectly related to the current crisis in the Persian Gulf.

Acute contradictions in OPEC+ matured in 2023 with the withdrawal of Angola and the curtailment of "voluntary restrictions" from the spring of 2025 and the agreement of other participants to raise quotas for the UAE by 300,000 barrels per day, but this only temporarily stopped the crisis, the expert says.

The main concern of the markets is related to the likely easing of restrictions on the remaining OPEC+ member countries, primarily Iraq, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia. Belogoryev is confident that they face the same dilemma as the UAE – to combine the return on investments already made in production and the preservation of OPEC+ restrictions.: "The Emirates have decided that it cannot be crossed."

For the market, this is a clear signal for an additional oil surplus in 2027-2028, the expert believes. Downward pressure on prices is already being observed, but it is purely emotional and is likely to wear off quickly, as the UAE's decision has no effect on the current supply and demand imbalance caused by the Gulf crisis.