Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the proposed energy policy of the new Trump administration and its consequences for Russia.
Harris did not plan to reduce oil production, it would also grow with her, says Alexey Belogoryev. "Thus, what the oil supply will be under Trump depends mainly on the global price environment, which Trump can only influence indirectly. But it may well improve production prospects, conditionally, in 2028-2032," the expert notes.
Fundamentally, oil prices should decline moderately, Belogoryev argues. Most likely, Trump will not prevent this: such a situation is beneficial for him both from the point of view of curbing inflation within the United States, and as an instrument of pressure on countries dependent on oil exports. At the same time, one of the biggest risks associated with his re—election is a possible increase in confrontation with Iran: for example, it is logical to expect Trump to tighten the implementation of his own imposed sanctions against Iranian oil exports.
In addition, Trump is likely to continue the line of sanctions against Russian LNG, which is being pursued by the State Department under Biden, Belogoryev believes."But the main thing is not so much sanctions as the risks of a real or rather imaginary direct military clash between Iran and the United States. They are unlikely to be implemented, but for some time they will unnerve the market and, accordingly, increase the geopolitical "premium" in the price of oil," the analyst argues.
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