Prospects for Kazakhstan's withdrawal from OPEC+

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the risk of Kazakhstan's withdrawal from OPEC+ due to the expected growth of its oil production in excess of established quotas.

Alexey Belogoryev believes that neither the authorities of Kazakhstan nor other OPEC+ countries are interested in Kazakhstan's formal withdrawal from the agreement.

According to him, Kazakhstan, for a number of reasons, has already postponed the planned production growth for almost a year, and its production is declining in 2024. He, like a number of other OPEC+ countries, does have problems with temporary quota excess, but he is trying to compensate for it.

"Therefore, Kazakhstan cannot be called irresponsible or evading its obligations under OPEC+ in any way. Rather, OPEC+ is "letting down" Kazakhstan by postponing the previously agreed increase in quotas," Belogoryev explained.

He added that it is almost certain that OPEC+ will agree to raise the quota for the republic, but it is not yet clear how much. It is expected that the increase in Kazakhstan's production in 2025 will amount to more than 200 thousand barrels per day, which is quite a lot within the framework of the "current trading within OPEC+". According to Belogoryev's estimates, a compromise could be an increase in the production limit for Kazakhstan by 100-150 thousand barrels per day.