Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the OPEC+ strategy and tactics on the global oil market in 2025.
OPEC+ sets itself two strategic goals: to regain some of the lost market niches by gradually restoring production and at the same time prevent a significant reduction in prices, Alexey Belogoryev says.
However, according to his estimates, tougher sanctions against Iranian oil exports from the United States can help oil prices stay at a high level, which will lead to an increase in the geopolitical "premium"."But, unfortunately, in the current market conditions, it is impossible to achieve both of these goals at the same time. Therefore, tactically, OPEC+ now has almost no room for maneuver. There are no signs of an increase in demand growth in 2025, and supply outside OPEC+ is increasing. As a result, the market remains on the verge of a supply surplus. Any increase in OPEC+ production in such a situation will lead to lower prices. Therefore, the most reasonable tactic is not to change anything and wait for a more convenient moment," he said.
"A number of OPEC+ countries, primarily the UAE and Kazakhstan, are not ready to postpone the commissioning of new production facilities beyond 2025. The time reserve during which it is theoretically possible to restrain production growth is no more than 4-6 months. Therefore, if on December 1 it is still quite possible to agree on maintaining the current quotas, but in the future it will become more difficult every month," the expert explained.
"But it is still unclear exactly when the Trump administration will launch the expected anti-Iranian campaign. That is, you may have to wait not until January-February, but much longer," Belogoryev stressed.
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