The EU's rejection of gas from Russia is inevitable, but there are loopholes

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to InfoTEK on the EU's decision to ban Russian gas imports from January 1, 2028.

The ban on Russian gas imports to the European Union from 2028 is likely to be eventually approved, but some supplies may remain through re-export schemes involving Turkey and Azerbaijan. Alexey Belogoryev expressed this opinion in an interview with InfoTEK.

The expert has no doubt that the decision on the ban, adopted by the EU Council on October 20, will be finally approved.

At the same time, he stressed that since the ban is imposed through a trade mechanism, and not within the framework of sanctions, Hungary and Slovakia cannot veto this decision.

According to Belogoryev's estimates, 12-13 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas, which are currently supplied to the EU through Turkey, falls under the ban.

"It's not a fact that all these volumes will be lost. There is an option in which Russian gas will be re–exported to the EU by Turkey or Azerbaijan," he explained.

Such a scheme, according to the analyst, can work from the beginning of 2028.

"Russia will formally supply more gas to the domestic markets of Turkey and possibly Azerbaijan, and these countries will export additional volumes to the EU," Belogoryev described a possible mechanism.

As for liquefied natural gas, the situation here looks more definite. The expert believes that in 2026-2027, Russian LNG supplies will decrease in any case. He noted that currently the volume of liquefied gas supplies to the EU is about 15 million tons per year (20 billion cubic meters).

"EU countries are feeling more and more free with regard to Russian LNG precisely because there is an oversupply on the world market, and the United States is ready to replace the entire volume of Russian supplies," Belogoryev explained.