From scarcity to excess. Where is the new equilibrium in the oil market?

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the publication "Finam.ru" about what balance and prices may be on the global oil market in the second half of 2026, and whether the OPEC+ policy will change under their influence.

Still, based purely on the current situation, Alexey Belogoryev believes that it will take about another month to restore stable, rhythmic supplies from the Persian Gulf.

“In July-August, the average monthly price of Brent is likely to remain in a narrow range of $ 70-75 per barrel, and in Q4 prices are likely to go below $ 70. The crisis in the Persian Gulf has only increased the future surplus, putting downward pressure on demand and stimulating alternative supply,” the expert said, adding that he agrees with Goldman and Morgan's forecasts of an oversupply and that this will almost inevitably happen by October or November. He also agreed with the dynamics of the IEA, specifying that he could not guarantee the accuracy of the numerical values, but that was the trend.

“The speed and nature of the recovery of Iranian oil exports is one of the main unknowns for the next year or two. The key thing so far is not even the volume, but the fact that for the first time in a long time, Iranian oil can go not only to China, but thanks to the easing of sanctions, also to South and Southeast Asia, making changes to the regional balance.”

As for OPEC+, Belogoryev is confident that the cartel “persistently continues to impose its own game on the market, ignoring the crisis in the Persian Gulf and its consequences.”

“In fact, the strategy adopted back in 2024 to increase the OPEC+'s market share and concomitantly manage price cuts is being implemented to cool investments in new production in competing countries in the western hemisphere. This strategy is only effective for the long term, so it is unlikely that OPEC+ decisions will adjust to the current balance. Production growth will continue,” the expert explained, adding that now the world is actually entering a phase of struggle for market share, when OPEC+ will prefer not to reduce production, but to allow prices to find a new balance on their own.