HomeMediaLatest NewsThe optimal option of abandon Ukrainian transit for Russia

The optimal option of abandon Ukrainian transit for Russia

20 February 2024

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Prime news agency on the prospects for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine after the current transit contract completion in December 2024.

"The optimal scenario for Russia is if Gazprom itself or through its "daughter" participates in Ukrainian auctions distributing free gas transportation capacities. This means that nothing will change in Gazprom's relations with consumers," Alexey Belogoryev believes.

This will be the main subject of negotiations, since Ukraine wants the booking to be carried out by the EU resident companies, the expert added.

The main scenario is the transition from January 2025 to short—term capacity reservations through the auction mechanism. Most likely, a month in advance. The main question is whether Ukraine will allow Gazprom to participate in auctions, and if not, who will book the facilities and on what terms it will negotiate with Gazprom.

Neither side is interested in extending the long—term contract: Ukraine — for political reasons, Gazprom - due to the uncertainty of long-term demand for Russian pipeline gas in the EU. The termination of transit, taking into account the military-political situation, cannot be ruled out in general.

But so far it still looks like an alarmist scenario. Slovakia, Austria and Hungary, which depend on supplies through Ukraine, will seek from Kiev and Brussels to maintain transit at least in 2025-2026.

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