Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Oil and Capital online portal on the OPEC+'s decision to gradually resume production growth by the Alliance's member countries from April 1, 2025.
As Alexey Gromov noted, it is not the increase in oil production that is much more important for Russia now, but its value on the world market.
In his opinion, the OPEC+ decision will not lead to some kind of radical jump in oil production in Russia. Any new oil projects that will bring the volume of black gold extraction beyond the levels of the first half of 2024 require additional assessment. Yes, there are such projects, but the question is whether companies will find enough investments for their implementation. It is unclear whether there will be buyers for these additional volumes."OPEC+ is not twitching from side to side, having begun the procedure of gradually lifting production restrictions. The market situation makes it possible to do this right now. For Russia, this means that it will be able to produce more oil, which the companies of our country have repeatedly asked the Ministry of Energy. Another question is that the potential for a sharp production increase in Russia is questionable.
In general, it is possible to raise production in the spring and summer to the level of 2024. It may even increase it by 1-2 million tons per year. However, in order to provide large volumes, demand is needed. In Russia, it is determined by the demand for petroleum products, and there is no shortage at all. We can only hope for exports, and the foreign market for the Russian Federation is under sanctions pressure in one form or another," the expert explained.
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