OPEC+ to increase oil production

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Business FM on the reasons and consequences of OPEC+'s decision to extend accelerated oil production growth in July 2025:

"A number of member-countries are not ready to restrain production any further, its growth is primarily in Kazakhstan, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Accordingly, the increase in the target planned production is brought in line with reality, with practical growth. If this had not been done, it would have led to a sharp decline in the discipline of execution of decisions. That is, a number of countries would produce much more than the quotas set for them, or some countries would withdraw from the agreement, as Angola did at the end of 2023. Therefore, the main task is self—preservation. The second task, which, apparently, is being solved by individual participating countries (not all), is such a mild price war. It is a soft one, that is, it is far from a hard scenario. The main problem of OPEC+ in recent years has been that they have found themselves in a stalemate where the entire increase in global oil demand has been offset by non—OPEC+ countries, primarily the United States, as well as Canada and Brazil, mainly countries in the Western Hemisphere. Accordingly, the market niche, the market share of OPEC+ has been declining all the time. And now OPEC+ is trying to restore its market share and at the same time cool down and, if possible, stop production growth in a number of non-OPEC+ countries, primarily in the United States."