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OPEC+ versus American oil

19 March 2024

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Oil and Capital magazine on the prospects for growth in oil production and exports to the United States and other non-OPEC+ countries in 2024-2025.

Alexey Belogoryev drew attention to the fact that no matter how much American companies want to take up more space in various markets, a lot still depends on the level of production in the United States. And its growth has clearly slowed down this year.

The expert acknowledged that the efficiency of drilling technologies continues to increase in the United States, but do not overestimate: the pace is no longer the same as it was about 10 years ago. Moreover, the structural problem associated with the rise in the cost of companies' unit costs for drilling and production plays an important role in the decline in production growth this year.

"The role of the United States in the increase in oil supply on the world market in 2024 and 2025 will be clearly lower than in 2023. But export growth will be from non-OPEC+ suppliers, including Norway, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and even China. All of them will also increase their share in the global market, replacing cartel members who have not increased their production yet. OPEC+, if it maintains its restrictions, which are observed in the first quarter of 2024, will lose its position in the market. The only thing that calms down a little is the smoothness of the process, i.e. there will be no abrupt change of suppliers in the market," Belogoryev believes.

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