OPEC+ will have to extend voluntary oil production cuts

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the TASS news agency on the current OPEC+ policy.

Alexey Belogoryev adheres to the point of view that maintaining voluntary cuts so far looks like the most likely scenario for OPEC+. Although, in his opinion, the contradictions between the members of the alliance are clearly growing.

"From the point of view of market factors, there is no such moment in 2025 when OPEC+ could increase production painlessly without causing a noticeable decrease in world prices," he notes.

At the same time, the expert admits that the moment to increase OPEC+ production may be presented by US President-elect Donald Trump, from whom almost everyone expects a sharp increase in pressure on Iran's oil exports. According to the expert, this could knock about half a million barrels per day off the market in a short time.

At the same time, Belogoryev believes that there are no new signs of an increase in the growth rate of oil demand in 2025, and the supply of oil from non-OPEC+ countries is increasing.

"The market is clearly on the verge of a supply surplus. Any increase in OPEC+ production in such a situation will lead to lower prices," the analyst adds.