Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Mash.News about the prospective dynamics of world oil prices and its impact on the Russian economy.
Against the background of the general cooling of global demand, the OPEC+ countries began to increase production in April. The supply outside the alliance is also growing. This will increase the surplus of oil in the market, especially by the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to lower prices, Alexey Belogoryev believes.
In his opinion, if Trump's large-scale duties postponed for 90 days are not introduced in the end, prices for benchmark Brent oil grades will remain in the range of $ 60-65 per barrel. But if the United States implements the promised policy of duties, oil may fall in price to $ 50 per barrel. Plus, the situation around the nuclear deal with Iran adds to the uncertainty. A possible deterioration in relations between Russia and the United States also threatens new restrictions on Russian energy resources and, as a result, may bring prices back to $70-80 per barrel.
"In other words, everything depends on the actual decrease in oil supply on the market, which is difficult to predict," Alexey Belogoryev explained.
"In previous periods of price declines, the situation was reversed. If relatively low oil prices take hold, and most likely they will, then the first thing to do in terms of balancing the budget is to lower the ruble exchange rate in order to increase ruble revenues to the treasury," the analyst believes.
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