Now we should expect the Belarusian president to be more pliable on energy issues than we saw earlier

Principal Director on Energy Studies Alexei Gromov gave comments to the Center for Energy Expertise on  the prospects for Russian-Belarusian relations in the energy sector.

Russia and Belarus are still very closely interconnected in terms of energy. The energy partnership between Russia and Belarus will undoubtedly continue. Moreover, we have officially recognized Alexander Lukashenko as the elected head of state. Given the changes in political relations between Russia and Belarus (the Belarusian president is essentially obliged to our president for his support and preservation of power in the republic), we should expect the Belarusian president to be more pliable than we saw earlier in matters of oil and oil products supplies, as well as gas prices…

This is especially important for us now, because 2025 is not far off, when the Eurasian Economic Union’s common markets of oil/petroleum products and gas will enter into real rights. In this regard, it is politically important for us that all the process’s participants do not put a spoke in the wheel in its implementation. Let me remind you that the position of Belarus has traditionally been quite prickly in relation to the integration processes — both in terms of creating the common market for oil products and in creating the common gas market.

At the moment, Belarus is clearly not in a position to dictate its terms and set any special requirements. In this regard, I suppose that in the near future, if the situation in the country stabilizes and Lukashenko retains his position in power, then Belarus will be more accommodating in negotiations with Russia in all directions. And the energy sector will be no exception.