New OPEC+ policy may redistribute oil market shares

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to InfoTEK on the new OPEC+ strategy on the global oil market.

"This strategy, which OPEC+ is currently implementing, definitely leads to a surplus in the market. Non-OPEC+ continues production to grow, and demand growth is clearly slowing. The estimates of OPEC and the IEA and other agencies on demand vary greatly, but in any case, it is obvious that supply growth this year significantly exceeds demand, no matter how you count it," Belogoryev said.

In his opinion, information about plans to increase production quotas by 137 thousand barrels per day per month during the year fits into the logic of the OPEC+'s latest actions, given previous decisions on production growth that the organization has made since April 2025.

Belogoryev noted that the alliance has enough resources to withstand a prolonged period of low prices, while US shale companies may not have enough financial strength.

He noted that the main pressure will be exerted on marginal projects that were profitable at a price of $70-80 per barrel, but become unprofitable at $60 and below.

"I think this message will be heard. Or it has already been heard. Therefore, taking into account the already quite obvious slowdown in oil production in the United States, I think that it can be expected to stabilize sometime by 2027. The gains will be relatively small in 2026," the analyst said.

Belogoryev suggested that the alliance would not overreact to the drop in quotations if it remained within the planned scenario.