Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the Institute for Public Administration and Governance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, commented to Gazeta.ru on Russia's readiness to partly move away from oil and gas dependence within 10-15 years.
In the next 10-15 years, there may be a peak in oil consumption, and then it will begin to decline, Marcel Salikhov said. This could lead to a reduction in oil exports. But a gas export reduction is still unlikely, the expert said. The fact is that these fuels have different uses and have different carbon footprints. In the energy transition from hydrocarbons to renewable energy sources, natural gas is considered to be a “transitional” fuel. Therefore, its consumption will not decrease, and may even increase, Salikhov said.
“But there is very high uncertainty about what will happen to prices in this situation. Most likely, export volumes will begin to decline, and, naturally, this is a big challenge for the Russian economy and budgetary system,” the expert emphasized.
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