Unsinkable oil: how the West had been limiting the industry and what came of it

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, summed up the results of 2025 for the Russian oil industry in comments to Forbes.

Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz were the first to test various schemes to overcome US sanctions restrictions, Alexey Gromov recalls. Both exporters supplied oil to India throughout the year. But some of them were reassigned to other Russian companies that were not on the US sanctions lists, he said.

The UK's recent decision to impose blocking sanctions on Russian oil exporting companies, which have not yet been affected by the restrictions, could significantly complicate Russia's exports.

The surplus in the global market forces oil countries to sacrifice export revenues, the analyst notes.

"This applies not only to Russia," he says. "Saudi Arabia has been selling its oil at discounts for the third month in a row to keep customers."

Russian oil prices are not critical, as the bulk of production is provided by existing fields that do not require development and development costs. So, the companies still receive income, although somewhat reduced, but quite acceptable to maintain exports, Gromov says.

"But, of course, the state is suffering, which by the end of December and in the first quarter of 2026 will receive the lowest oil and gas revenues in the last five years," he notes.

Russia is facing a difficult year, says Gromov. According to him, the sanctions pressure on the industry, which has already increased significantly in the first six months of 2025, will increase in 2026, and the surplus of oil on the world market will lead to lower prices.

"The dynamics, which are negative for oil and gas revenues and for the industry as a whole, will continue at least throughout the first half of 2026. Much will depend on the actions of OPEC+ and shale oil production in the United States, but for now we expect extremely low oil and gas revenues and, possibly, even a decrease in exports if some companies from China, India and Turkey succumb to sanctions restrictions and decide to replace Russian supplies with oil from other regions," the expert says.