Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the reasons and consequences of the gas supply contract suspension between OMV and Gazprom.
Alexey Belogoryev noted that more than 8.5 billion cubic meters of gas are now concentrated in Austrian gas storage facilities, and annual consumption in 2023 amounted to 7 billion cubic meters.
He believes that in the event of an emergency purchase of gas, prices will rise by 20-30%, and "more dramatic price scenarios" are possible. In addition, prices will remain high in summer, as the storages will be very empty by spring. Because of the situation, Austrian consumers will lose out."For the remaining autumn-winter period (until the end of March), Austria is unlikely to need more than 4.5–5 billion cubic meters of gas. In addition, reverse gas supplies from Italy and Germany are possible and will certainly be possible. Therefore, a physical shortage of gas with a complete loss of Russian supplies is likely, but we are not talking about 50% of consumption, but about conditionally 5-10%. It will be most difficult during the days of peak winter demand," the expert predicts.
He admitted that Russian gas would be supplied to Austria through traders, but at higher prices.
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