The "oil" Trump vs. the "greens" Biden and Harris

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the consequences of Trump's possible re-election for the US oil and gas complex to the Oil and Capital magazine.

According to Alexey Belogoryev, Trump is likely to lift the temporary moratorium imposed under Biden on the issuance of licenses for new LNG projects, may make concessions for coal mining companies, lift production restrictions on federal lands and try to reduce environmental bans. But this does not mean that the US oil and gas industry will show some tectonic shifts in the next year or two.

"This is all a long-term game. Even the export permit for new LNG projects will affect facilities that will be operational no earlier than 2028. Moreover, the main restrictions for the oil and gas sector in the United States are decisions at the level of local authorities in the states, and the president cannot simply cancel them.

And companies in the United States do not seek explosive production growth. For gas this year, it is already clear that overproduction keeps the price tag of blue fuel at uncomfortably low levels for sellers. There is also a supply-demand balance for oil, which none of the players wants to break. The WTI market [benchmark grade, light oil from Texas] is to some extent isolated from the global market, but still has to react to what is happening in the world. With a strong increase in production, there is a risk of lower prices, and companies do not need this," the expert explained.

Alexey Belogoryev stressed that the mass launch of all LNG projects threatens price stability within the United States. After 2026, the cost of gas may decrease significantly. There is an increase in demand for gas from the gas chemical industry and fertilizer producers, but they are extremely sensitive to prices and would not like volatility.

"It is unlikely that Trump will be able to increase oil demand either. There are no new consumers in sight, and existing ones can only slightly increase demand. The United States market is already saturated," the analyst noted.