Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the reduction in Russian oil supplies to India.
With an oversupply of oil on the global market estimated at about 2 million barrels, India is already replacing Urals with alternative grades that it buys from the UAE, Angola and Brazil, Gromov notes. For example, it can replace a third or even half of the oil supplied from Russia.
Of the total volume of supplies to India, Gromov recalls, at least 400,000 b/d goes to the Nayara Energy refinery, where Rosneft owns a 49.13% stake — oil from Russia will go there."It seems to me that this will be an acceptable solution for Trump, who will be able to tell the whole world that India has halved purchases from Russia, and will reduce even more in the future. Then he will lose interest in this topic. But India will not completely abandon Russian oil, because the volumes are too large," the expert argues.
"Russian oil purchased by India, after processing, will be sent domestically, rather than participating in production schemes for export-oriented petroleum products. At least in the coming months, so as not to annoy regulators in Europe and the United States," he says.
"If there wasn't a surplus of oil on the market right now, the U.S. deal with India would have been impossible. But the excess of oil limits Russia's ability to resist the sanctions pressure," the expert concludes.
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