Alexey Belogoryev, Deputy Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the prospects for the supply of Russian oil and petroleum products after February 5, 2023.
Alexey Belogoryev believes that the possibilities of Russian companies to circumvent restrictions are almost exhausted. In addition, due to gray schemes, the country's budget does not receive profit, he says:
"There is a feeling that the three main sales markets that we have developed over the past year — China, India and Turkey — are close to exhausting the possibility of increasing imports of Russian oil.
Further increase in supplies is associated with smaller markets in South and Southeast Asia, partly Africa. The falling volumes of exports of petroleum products, which will appear after February 5, are unlikely to be even partially replaced by an increase in crude oil supplies. That is, it is also expected to reduce imports this year. As for the logistics of these products, estimates have become much more positive in terms of freight.
Russian companies, apparently, managed to dramatically increase their fleet last year. There are many questions about its durability, but it is there. The main problem is that the costs have increased greatly in terms of the need for transshipment at sea. In addition, the delivery distance has become longer. The main question is who gets the excess profit, which is expressed in discounts. There are strong suspicions that Russian companies are behind most of them."
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