Oil is under threat. What will the US strike on Iran lead to?

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to "Finam.ru " about the main scenario of the expected US military aggression against Iran and the impact of the "Iranian factor" on the dynamics of world oil prices.

“The Trump administration is clearly not ready and does not want a large-scale and prolonged conflict with severe consequences for the global markets of oil, petroleum products, LNG, polymers, plastics, nitrogen fertilizers, aluminum and everything else exported by the Persian Gulf countries. They just want to bring the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program to an end from a maximum position of strength. Classic gunboat diplomacy. But Iran does not seem to be amenable to this intimidation. The psychological barrier to the use of force on both sides has been broken. To some extent, this is even a good thing: Trump's first demonstrative strike may not be symbolic, he needs to clearly show the reality of the threat. In this case, it is also unprofitable for Iran to respond too sharply. But, I repeat, a spark often ignites a flame,” Alexey Belogoryev commented.

“If Trump hadn't stirred up the geopolitical background so much, the price of Brent would now be at about $ 63-65 per barrel. The movement towards $60 and below, which was planned by the end of 2025, would most likely have been stopped for a short time even without Trump: due to the Iranian protests, the decline in Kazakh and Russian exports, and others. But the threat of an invasion of Iran adds a premium to the price, hovering around $4-7 per barrel. The Venezuelan factor, also created by Trump, played a role at the very beginning of January, but it has almost been played out. The fact that the price of Brent remains in the range of 67-72 dollars per barrel speaks in favor of the limited threat that market participants see, that is, without blocking the Strait of Hormuz and other horrors. The war with Iran has been scaring the oil market for so long, for decades, that it has already developed a fairly stable immunity to this factor. It's like in Aesop's fable about the boy who shouted “Wolves! Wolves!” - Belogoryev said.