Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented Finam.ru on the consequences of the Iran-Israel military conflict for the global oil market.
“It is still difficult to imagine that such an armed conflict, when the parties do not have a common border and rely only on air attacks and sabotage, can last for a long time. Maybe a few weeks. What happens next depends on how the conflict ends, that is, how great the risk of its early resumption will be. If such a risk is assessed as weak, the geopolitical bubble in the oil price will quickly deflate, and prices will continue to decline, tending towards the corridor of 55-60 dollars per barrel. Without taking into account the Iranian factor, the average annual price of Brent crude oil could drop to $64 per barrel this year. Taking into account Iran, according to preliminary estimates, it will remain around $ 71, but in any case this means a decrease of more than 10% compared to the previous year,” Belogoryev explained.
Subscribe for updates
and be the first to know about new publications