It's not scary: why Europeans are not afraid of stopping gas transit through Sudzha

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes about the situation around the Sudzha gas measuring station and the prospects for the further transit preservation of Russian gas to Europe through the territory of Ukraine.

"Military operations in this area have been underway for the second week, but the volume of Ukrainian gas transit is surprisingly not just at the average levels of this year, but almost at the maximum values for the year," Alexey Gromov told Forbes. — The average level [of transit supplies] was 37-39 million cubic meters per day, and now we see that it has grown to more than 40 million cubic meters. This is also an indicator of how sensitive the conflicting parties are to the preservation of gas supply through Suju. Most likely, this is happening under the influence of pressure from third forces, primarily from Europe, which is determined to ensure that this transit lasts as long as possible."

Ukraine can hardly be interested in stopping supplies, since it depends on gas transit, receiving about $ 1 billion a year for it, Gromov believes.

"The volume of pumping through Sudzha has increased, gas prices in Europe, oddly enough, are not growing, but have calmed down and are even slightly decreasing," the expert argues. — Ukraine could have chosen this direction for the invasion, probably by informally agreeing with the Europeans on its terms, including the inviolability of Ukrainian transit to Europe. It is quite possible that Russia did not take into account the possibility of an invasion in this direction, considering it the safest from a military point of view, because there is a gas transit point there, on which Ukraine depends in terms of financial flows."

Austria, Hungary and Slovakia mainly receive gas through Sudzha, while small volumes also flow to Croatia and a number of other Balkan countries and Moldova, Gromov says. According to him, Austria is the most dependent on Russian gas supplies, accounting for about 60% of its consumption.

"If Austria had not been among the countries that receive Ukrainian gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system, then perhaps the transit of Russian gas through Suja would have been stopped," Gromov says. — The risk that supplies will be interrupted is very high, but this is not happening. I assume that this is due precisely to the fact that Austria is among the recipients of Russian gas flowing through this station, with which the European Union clearly does not want to quarrel, and Russia, apparently, too."

Austria cannot yet find alternatives, unlike, for example, Hungary, which can receive Russian gas through another pipeline, the Turkish Stream, says Gromov. In the current situation, economics and geopolitics are closely intertwined, the expert argues.