The deadline has been set for when the conflict in the Middle East will hit prices for the most important raw materials

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave detailed comments to URA.ru News Agency on the situation with oil prices and the consequences of blocking the Strait of Hormuz after the start of the US and Israeli military operation against Iran.

Price hype was also avoided due to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz, in fact, was closed only for a day.

"After that, the cargo and insurance companies themselves voluntarily revoked permits for the passage of their tankers until the situation stabilizes. That is, in fact, the strait is not blocked. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the opportunity to redirect shipments outside the Persian Gulf," the analyst stressed.

Against this background, the duration of the conflict will play a decisive role, Gromov believes. If the conflict is resolved in the coming weeks, a further jump in prices is most likely not worth waiting for — they will be held back by the accumulated reserves.

"Before the conflict began, Iran moved a significant part of its oil from the main terminal in the Persian Gulf on tankers to the Arabian Sea for supplies to potential buyers, primarily China. In addition, there are about 130 million barrels of Russian oil in the same region, which could not be supplied to India in January-February. Importing countries also have enough reserves to survive the strain for several weeks. But if everything drags on for months, prices will go up," Gromov predicts.

However, in this context, the decision of the OPEC+ alliance to increase oil production by 200,000 barrels per day from April is important, the expert noted. This is a signal to the market that they are ready to increase supplies in order to bring down the price rush, he believes.