Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the reasons for the difference in export prices for Russian gas in Europe and China.
According to Alexey Belogoryev, for the Asian market, the gas price peg to oil products is the norm rather than the exception.
According to him, Russian gas has never been a non-alternative for China, and CNPC has had and still has the opportunity to bargain hard. In recent years, the Power of Siberia has been forming the lower price limit for gas imports to China, so such pricing is definitely beneficial for China.
According to Belogoryev, despite the sharp drop in 2023 and the first half of 2024, exchange prices for gas remain noticeably higher than the usual "norm". In January—August 2024, the price of TTF for the day ahead was 71% higher than the average values of 2015-2019, the price of Brent crude oil was 41%, the expert notes.
At the same time, Belogoryev believes that with the onset of a long period of relatively low exchange prices for gas from 2026, the oil product peg may again become more marginal, "unless, of course, oil prices fall after gas prices."
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