HomeMediaLatest NewsMiller warned of a new price shock’s risk in the European gas market

Miller warned of a new price shock’s risk in the European gas market

10 October 2024

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the prospects for Russian gas exports in the eastern and southern directions and short- and medium-term prospects for gas price dynamics in the European market.

In the east, Russia will become the largest gas exporter to China this year, ahead of Australia and Turkmenistan, Alexey Belogoryev commented. Pipeline supplies to the Chinese market will reach 30 billion cubic meters, and in 2025-2026 they will increase to 38 billion cubic meters with the prospect of growth to 48 billion cubic meters by 2028-2029, taking into account the planned launch of the new "Far Eastern route".

"The Power of Siberia-2 project looms over the horizon of 2031-2033, in which China, however, is still not very interested," he adds.

Belogoryev notes that the project of gas supplies to Iran will require new infrastructure solutions, for example, the construction of a pipeline along the bottom of the Caspian Sea.

"But it's too early to talk about it, because this whole project still looks a little fantastic," the expert believes.

"Since the second half of 2023, the volatility of European stock gas prices has fallen significantly, and there are no short-term reasons for an increase. Yes, there is already a seasonal increase in prices, quite typical for the fourth quarter, partly supported by an increase in oil prices. But there is nothing special about it," Alexey Belogoryev believes.

At the same time, he notes that the prospects for the first quarter are not yet fully clear. In the event of the termination of Russian gas supplies via the Ukrainian route, much will depend on two unknowns — the weather and the available LNG supply.

"At TTF, the "Ukrainian premium" to the price is unlikely to exceed 10%. At national hubs in Germany and especially in Italy and Austria, the dynamics may be more pronounced," the expert argues.

 

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