Dreams repeat themselves: Gazprom asked to protect it from competitors and raise prices

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the prospects for reforming the domestic gas market in Russia.

Gazprom retains a complete monopoly on gas exports, with the exception of certain large plants producing liquefied natural gas (LNG), and counts on it in the long term, Alexey Belogoryev says.

"The company has been defending this position for the last 20 years at all sites," he recalls. "And there is no progress."

According to Belogoryev, in China, Russian pipeline gas competes primarily with pipeline gas from Central Asia, and LNG has been unable to compete with them in recent years simply because of its high cost.

"But even if prices ever equalize, it will be competition not with Russian LNG, but with an impersonal mixture of LNG from different countries," Belogoryev adds. "And how much Russian LNG will be inside this mixture will not affect the competition conditions in principle."

Starting from July 1, 2025, according to the government's decision, wholesale regulated gas prices will be 35% higher than in November 2023 for industry and 23% higher for the population, the expert recalls.

"And starting in 2026, based on current plans, the government intends to abandon the 2023-2025 policy of accelerating gas price increases, reducing indexation to the level of projected annual inflation of 4%, which clearly contradicts Gazprom's aspirations," he adds.