Macron has proposed to detain tankers of the Russian "shadow fleet" to disrupt supplies

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Business FM on Emmanuel Macron's proposal to detain ships carrying Russian oil as a measure to combat Russian oil exports:

"The "shadow Fleet" is not used for a good life. Its very appearance was a response to the numerous restrictions imposed, including the price ceiling. At the same time, most of these exports go through the Baltic ports, at least through the Black Sea ports. That is, through the territory controlled by the EU in one way or another, through the Baltic Sea, and this is indeed a critical dependence of Russia from the point of view of logistics. Therefore, these threats should be taken seriously. If we assume the scenario that the EU countries will somehow be able to block the supply of Russian hydrocarbons through the Baltic Sea altogether, this will lead to a significant reduction in exports and, in fact, oil production. There are no alternative options here, meaning all the other routes that exist are already overloaded. Therefore, this is an extremely negative scenario if it is implemented.

Another thing is that the measure proposed by Macron does not relate in any way to economic sanctions, it is, in fact, something very close to a military blockade by non-military methods. Let's say this is going to be a police operation, as if based on far-fetched, but still legitimate demands, and from a legal point of view it will be clearly politically motivated prosecution, that is, it can probably even be challenged in the courts, and I assume that in some cases it will be successful. This is a very serious escalation that puts Russia and the EU on the verge of a direct military confrontation in the Baltic Sea. Because, most likely, Russia will respond by forming convoys, that is, ships will be escorted by warships. Therefore, I think that Poland's position is related to this. Macron is generally known for his rather hawkish proposals. The new Polish president has a more balanced position in this case, which reflects serious concerns about further military escalation."