Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the newspaper Izvestia on the likely decisions of OPEC+ until the end of 2026 and the organization’s effectiveness in the global oil market.
In the coming months, a revision of the voluntary oil production quotas is unlikely, as the participating countries will now focus on reassessing the baseline production levels from which these quotas are calculated, believes Alexey Belogoryev. Planning oil production is a knowledge‑intensive process that includes an audit of raw material reserves and available production and refining capacities, he explained.
At the same time, actual oil production in Russia is currently declining regardless of the quotas set within OPEC. Due to the decline in refining capacity caused by some plants being put into maintenance, according to preliminary estimates, the volume of black gold production may decrease by 2.5% by the end of the year, the expert believes.
Alexey Belogoryev believes that in the long term, OPEC will regain its former influence on the global market. Currently, the cartel’s meetings have no effect on the market, but the situation will change after the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz ends. The main participants — Saudi Arabia and Russia — currently have no interest in breaking this agreement.
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