Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Moskovskaya Gazeta on oil prices and oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget in 2026.
The ruble exchange rate in recent years has shown a low dependence on the dynamics of world oil prices, and it is also influenced mainly by the Central Bank's key rate and trade balance, Alexey Belogoryev said.
According to the expert, the average annual price for the main Russian export grade Urals in 2025 could be about $ 56 per barrel, that is, the average discount to Brent was $ 13 or 19%."Based on current trends, the average annual price of Brent is aiming for $ 60 per barrel against $ 69 in 2025, while monthly prices may be closer to $ 50 per barrel by the end of the year," the analyst said.
"Given the growing sanctions pressure, there is no reason to believe that the average annual discount will decrease, rather, on the contrary, therefore, all other things being equal, I would expect that in 2026 the average annual Urals price will be approximately $ 49 per barrel, which is 17% lower than the price set in the Russian budget.
A noticeable decrease in prices is also expected in the gas market. Therefore, achieving the planned oil and gas revenues in 2026 in the amount of 10.5 trillion rubles will be a difficult task, even assuming a significant weakening of the ruble," the analyst concluded.
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