When will OPEC+ return to reducing oil production

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Prime News agency on the possible return of restrictions on oil production from OPEC+.

"It will be possible to understand how the situation is developing based on the results of the first half of the year. And, perhaps, if China takes less oil than stipulated in the OPEC+ forecasts, then the alliance may return to production restrictions at the meeting in June," the expert commented.

According to Gromov, the main drivers of demand growth in the oil market are China and India, but the former country "raises the most questions." For example, in 2024, China provided 500,000 barrels per day of additional demand, or about a third of the total increase. But it used to give half.

"This year, it is assumed that the growth in oil demand in the Chinese market will continue to decline. That is, the country can add, for example, 300 thousand barrels per day to the market in 2025. And India will increase demand at the level of the same 300 thousand barrels per day, that is, until it can compensate for the losses in demand growth from China," the analyst added.