When OPEC+ may increase oil production

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on why OPEC+ plans to conduct an independent assessment of the maximum sustainable oil production capacities of the participating countries and how this will affect the allocation of the OPEC+ quotas starting in 2027.

"In fact, the data of production facilities from 7-8 years ago is now being used, that is, as of about 2018. Moreover, this is a patchwork quilt: in fact, each country itself provided data on its production capacities based on the methodology it considered necessary. And this data is difficult to name comparable, as well as relevant in many cases," Belogoryev said.

Therefore, he added, the idea of measuring technical potential based on field inspections and a unified approach to technical audit with the help of a single independent contractor is an important milestone in the development of OPEC+, which will allow us to eliminate in advance the contradictions that inevitably arise and will arise between the members of the agreement. Currently, in some countries, the technical potential may be clearly underestimated, while in others it may be overestimated, the expert believes.

"It can be assumed that the main increase in quotas will affect the countries of the Persian Gulf. This... United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, probably Saudi Arabia. That is, those countries that are actively investing in oil production, and where, according to independent estimates, there is indeed an increase in capacity. The most affected countries for which quotas may be reduced will be African producers: Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, where there is a chronic underinvestment crisis and current production clearly does not meet quotas," Belogoryev explained.

He noted that the most difficult thing would be to calculate the maximum production capacity for Russia, as it has sanctions restrictions.