Maxim Shevyrenkov, Head of the Center for Commodity Market Analysis at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the prospects for Russian oil production and its supply to the markets of China and India.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the sanctions would not lead to a reduction in oil production in the country. Russia has underused about 70,000 bpd under the OPEC+ agreement and will increase production in November to October levels. According to the OPEC+ agreement, a monthly quota of 9.532 million bpd has been allocated for November. Novak also said that he maintains the production forecast for this year at 510 million tons, that is, almost the same volume as in 2024 (516 million tons).
The figure of 510 million tons looks quite realistic, Maxim Shevyrenkov says. The slight decrease is not caused by the imposition of sanctions, but by relatively low demand on the global market with high production levels, the expert believes.
Despite the rather harsh sanctions, the market has already become accustomed to the fact that the US presidential administration uses restrictions or duties as a starting point when starting negotiations, the expert believes. Therefore, according to him, the market reacted sluggishly, realizing that the situation with sanctions could change.