Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the Russian gas exports prospects to China to the Oil and Capital publication.
As Alexey Belogoryev explained, despite the increase in production in China, gas consumption is growing, which means that imports will expand, including through purchases from Russia. But Russia is not the only source.
‘Beijing has one of the most ambitious programs in the world for the new regasification terminal constructions. The country can accept a lot of LNG even in places where it was previously impossible. An additional Central Asia—China gas pipeline is being built for Turkmen gas.
Beijing is interested in the volumes of gas that have already been contracted — this is 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year on the "Power of Siberia" and 10 billion on the "Far Eastern route" (which will start working no earlier than 2028). China does not need more than this 48 billion from Russia. The 50 billion cubic meters offered by the RF at the expense of the "Power of Siberia 2" are not particularly interesting to Beijing right now, since it cannot guarantee the consumption of such a volume. In the forecasts of the People's Republic of China until 2030, there is simply no demand for such a quantity of gas.
But Russian LNG in the PRC market will be interesting, although it will have to fight hard with other competitors, of which there are a lot. Swap operations for the sale of Russian gas to China with the help of Kazakhstan are not excluded, which will now become an importer of Russian gas for a long time (due to gasification on its territory and increased consumption). However, these are not such large volumes for the Chinese market," the expert explained.
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