How is the fate of Lukoil's foreign assets being determined?

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Oninvest (Kazakhstan) on the progress and prospects of the sale of LUKOIL's foreign assets.

The purpose of the sanctions was primarily to reduce Russian hydrocarbon exports to India and China, increase the discount on Russian oil and reduce the country's budget revenues, Alexey Belogoryev believes.

For a month and a half, it has not been possible to conclude a single transaction with Lukoil's foreign assets. The process of finding optimal options and coordinating them with the US Treasury may take the whole of 2026, he notes.

According to Alexey Belogoryev, there are currently only two realistic scenarios.

The first is the sale of Lukoil in parts, where the most "tidbits" in Iraq and, possibly, in African projects, will go to the Americans, and the rest (gas stations, oil refining, trading, minority shares) will be distributed among others. The second is the sale of assets in a single package, where the buyer will be a large fund such as Carlyle. He will be able to buy the package at a discount and resell it in parts already at market value. This scenario is less likely, as it is unprofitable for Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the expert concludes.