It won't be as before: will oil and LNG prices fall after the end of the war in Iran

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on what will happen in the global oil and gas market after the end of the Gulf War.

At the moment, there is only official information from QatarEnergy about Iran's destruction of approximately 17% of the capacity of the world's largest liquefied natural gas complex in Ras Laffan. It will take from three to five years to restore it.

The Iranian strikes on the complex actually reversed the balance in the LNG market by 180 degrees, where a transition to a stable supply surplus was expected, says Alexey Belogoryev. Now, throughout 2026 and, most likely, 2027, there will be a shortage in the market, which will lead to further price increases, the expert believes.

"The price bubble in the oil market can blow away quickly," the expert argues. "There is no talk of $60 per barrel of Brent in the coming months, but prices may well return to $70—$75."

According to him, from the moment when shipowners and captains are convinced that there is no threat of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, it will take from a week to three to restore supply chains, depending on the remoteness of the markets. Time to restore production can be neglected in this case: the Gulf has accumulated excess reserves of oil and petroleum products in tankers and on land, Belogoryev says.

"Insurance companies can become a brake: it usually takes more than one day to reduce tariffs related to military risk," the expert notes.

"Russia's long-term benefits may significantly exceed its short-term windfall gains from rising prices. Distrust of the reliability of supplies from the Persian Gulf will increase the demand for alternative sources of supply in the future, the key of which are Russia and the United States," the analyst predicts.

We are talking not only about oil and petroleum products, but also about LNG, fertilizers, helium, aluminum and a wide range of petrochemical products, Belogoryev adds.