How will the global gas trade map change by 2030

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper (appendix "Vedomosti. Analytics") on the dynamics of Russian pipeline gas exports in 2024-2026 and changes in spot LNG prices in the future until 2028.

The introduction of new global liquefaction capacities in 2026-2028 will outpace demand growth, Belogoryev predicts.

"Already in the spring and summer of 2026, the global LNG supply will become excessive after three years of noticeable shortages. This should ensure saturation of the European LNG market and lower prices both in Europe and Asia," he notes.

At the same time, a slight increase in exports is possible as early as 2026 due to additional supplies to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. It is these two countries that can provide the main increase in demand in the next two to three years if relations with the EU in the gas sector continue to deteriorate, the expert notes.

In the target scenario of the Energy Strategy until 2050, the total gas exports from Russia in 2030 should grow to 293 billion cubic meters. According to Belogoryev's forecast, exports will amount to about 223 billion cubic meters.

"The main failure in terms of energy strategy targets is possible in large–tonnage LNG supplies," he believes.